rhys' moblog

by rhys

user profile | dashboard | imagewall

« older newer »


Number of hits since July 2006:

web page hit counter

My top weekly artists:

Random image:

popuptext for rollover

Creative Commons Attribution License

Search this moblog

Recent visitors


(viewed 1614 times)
Bookmark and Share
15th Oct 2007, 19:33   | tags:,,

Euphro (NLI) says:

What seems to be the problem?

15th Oct 2007, 19:48

rhys says:

My brain :P
Not sure really, just doesn't make sense.

I was never good at statistics.

15th Oct 2007, 19:53

lisa says:

ouch my brain hurts!
cool pics though =D

15th Oct 2007, 19:58

gofes says:

It's just an expanded version of this

15th Oct 2007, 20:01

rhys says:

How did you find that?

15th Oct 2007, 20:04

Euphro (NLI) says:

I used to love calculating probabilities at school :) (which probably says a lot about me).

It's quite easy if you looks at it. "n" the number of years, is always above the line, i.e. it multiplies things, because, if you think about it, the longer you wait the more likely it is that something will happen. "k" is always below the line, i.e it divides things, because it is some sort of parameter for the severity of the event you are trying to predict. It makes sense that the more severe an event, the less likely it is. "P" and "q" are given parameters so you don't have to worry abuot them. Factorialising the numbers (the "!" symbol; multiplying 4*3*2*1, for example, for 4!) just gives you the number of permutations you are working with in the core part of your equation. Sorry if I'm teaching my grandmother to suck eggs :D

15th Oct 2007, 20:14

rhys says:

Not at all. Thank you very much. Hearing it from a "different angle", so to speak, is good.

"Serious and negligible flooding probabilities of an area of land within the Vale of Glamorgan with a proposed development plan ." Exciting stuff.

15th Oct 2007, 20:25

r_e_v_a_n_s says:

You should give gary a ring

16th Oct 2007, 21:30

rhys says:


16th Oct 2007, 21:41

r_e_v_a_n_s says:

Dr. Gary Simpson

18th Oct 2007, 07:47

rhys says:

18th Oct 2007, 10:27

r_e_v_a_n_s says:

umm err yes

22nd Oct 2007, 22:52